a start to the year too good to be true?

What about this start to the year on the stock market? Only that it is in line with the outperformance and themes already shown since October; We have a revival of these themes. Overall new money, rotations, arbitrations continuing.

Is it sustainable?

It’s the stock market that tells us that before we believe too much in a scenario, it will take a few months to decide. Meanwhile, a desire for stagflation is playing out on the stock market. Inflation will come down but remain high by recent years’ standards and the economy will slow down without entering too deep a recession. As a result, we tell ourselves that the bulk of the rate hike is behind us and we should hold off for a bit.

And how the recession hasn’t yet affected wallets because a lot of aid is still present. Well, there’s still plenty of cash to invest and rotate. As in 2022, however, the market remains selective and rotates.

We will not get carried away, we are more on the continuation of a second leg of the October hike, consolidated in December than on a brand new move.

We will have the results next week. they should still demonstrate resilience. I think we will have a little more recessionary fears later on, and especially in April when the first quarter results come out. But again, it will depend a lot on the sectors. And the stock market should lead as always.

As long as the market doesn’t worry about a black swan on collateral that jumps due to too high rates, we won’t be betting on declining cyclicals and growth against the backdrop of a tougher and longer-than-expected recession with central banks for too long again late in their reactions. But at the same time, their policy is responsive, so we can’t expect anything else.

In the same way a fund manager will prefer to screw up having bought the same value as everyone else to justify his poor performance by saying it’s not my fault, it’s the market, look everyone got it wrong, it wasn’t foreseeable. We will always fire the manager who tried to outperform and treat him as a fool by buying something nobody has. I myself have probably already been fired more times than my bets, even when it is announced that it is a speculative dynamic turned portfolio.

So it’s the same for central banks, because they should try to anticipate losing all credibility later. He’s often against performance, but it’s best for his career and his retention of status to follow the consensus.

In short, we must always be wary of the beginning of the year, which favors many trade-offs that are often more technical than trendy.

This does not dispute the fact that cyclical stocks, and therefore Europe more generally, continue to outperform. Like the cac 40 which is bullish above 6570 points. But don’t rush, to get carried away you will have to cross 6830. A little consolidation in the meantime won’t hurt. Masi what to say except that it is clean and that the buyers have a hand.

Graphseo stock portfolio

Portfolio-wise, I’ve only gotten along with the fact that as my capital was reduced I ended up with significant line weights on what I was left with. Otherwise, I’ve generally lost the rebound.

But it must be said that there is always a problem of volume and liquidity of securities on Euronext for a good number of fundamentally interesting threads. Let’s not spit in the soup, this beginning of the year has allowed me to set my project reduction, to sit on an earnings mattress to be mentally well prepared for the future and to wait for some construction.

I have been able to cut ubisoft, paypal, twlo, atos and others to scale positions and recoup money and move to more discipline. I took other growth stocks to catch up.

friendly

Julian