(BFM Bourse) – First of all, note that, despite the festive nature of this Tuesday (November 1st, All Saints), the Paris Stock Exchange will be listed, according to the usual schedule conditions. The occasion to point out the lack of systematic correspondence between public holidays and closure in Paris. On the contrary, Monday 26 December, which is not a public holiday, will not be working.
The main Parisian index, the CAC 40, will have closed the session on Monday on a slightly negative note, in reduced activity due to the absence of a significant fringe of operators. The barometer contracted by 0.10% to 6,266 points. Traders already have their eyes on tomorrow’s outcome of a new Fed Monetary Policy Committee. The challenge is to “feel” how close the Fed is to its “neutral” rate.
“The Federal Reserve is expected to raise jumbo rates once again (75 basis points) at its November 2 meeting,” anticipates, like many analysts, Thomas Costerg, Pictet Wealth Management Senior US Economist.
“Despite mounting political pressures, including open letters from some Democratic senators who fear collateral damage to the economy, the Fed should remain ‘in place’ given the persistence of inflation.”
The Fed will be able to rely on the PCE indices released on Friday. Consumer prices according to this index (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) in fact increased by 6.2% in one year, where the consensus forecasted 6.3%. In October, prices rose 0.5%, within the target.
The Fed will of course also take into account the employment tensions, while the monthly data (NFP) are expected for Friday. Today, the private company investigation into HR ADP will give a precious taste.
“The Fed is also looking in particular at employment gains, which are still very resilient (the unemployment rate is at a low of 3.5%), as well as consumer inflation expectations (particularly those of the Michigan survey The latter remain relatively high at 5% (October figure), and in particular fuel fears of inflation that would assert itself because it is rooted in mentalities, ”adds Costberg.
In yesterday’s statistical chapter, inflation data (consumer price indices in the first estimate for the current month) showed an acceleration in the Zone EUR, + 10.7% on an annual basis, and + 5.0% excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, the most volatile elements. «As for the main components of inflation in the area EURenergy is expected to record the highest annual rate in October (41.9%, compared to 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (13.1%, compared to 11.8% in September) ), industrial goods excluding energy (6.0%, compared to 5.5% in September) and services (4.4%, compared to 4.3% in September) “, detailed EuroStat.
Across the Atlantic, the Chicago PMI activity index fell to 45.2, the lowest since June 2020.
On the side of values, Orpea And Coriano it increased by 24% and 10% respectively after plunging on Friday, by 20.4% and 17% respectively. The announcement last week of a major financial restructuring project by Orpea throw a new thrill on an already struggling sector of the stock market. On the other side of the Parisian chessboard, Air France-KLM it fell 3% and continued to see compensation, having already fallen 13.05% on Friday. Capgemini lost 3.4% e Sodexo returned on its part 2.10% while Saffron it lost a little share (-0.9%) penalized by a worsening of Citi which went from “neutral” to “buying” on value.
Across the Atlantic, the major equity indices contracted slightly, such as the Dow Jones (-0.39% to 32,732 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-1,03% to 10,988 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark risk appetite barometer in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.75% to 3,871 points.
Note that the US East Coast will switch to winter time overnight from Saturday to the following Sunday. Meanwhile Wall Street will open at 2.30pm (Paris time) and not at 3.30pm.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market the single currency was trading at levels close to $ 0.9920. The barrel of WTIone of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets was in circulation $ 87.10.
To follow as a priority on this Tuesday’s statistical agenda, the ISM manufacturing PMI and the new JOLTS job offers, across the Atlantic at 3pm.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flagship Paris equity index continues to form a broad wedge, with an exit from the bottom (not yet in the news) would rhyme with a resumption of the bearish current in significant volatility. The good performance in this phase of stocks with high current beta, coupled with trading volumes, leaves the field open to a short period of balance of forces present. In the very short term, once the precarious balance has been broken, two scenarios are now considered: the entry into a consolidation banner, or the formation of a new corrective leg.
In light of the key graphical factors we have identified, our view on the index is neutral CAC 40 short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6286.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6142.00 points would raise the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Graph in the daily data
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