CH first choice | You don’t win by playing it safe!

The Canadians just got the first pick in the NHL Draft for the third time since its inception in 1963. The acquisition of the 1971 and 1980 picks was the culmination of a brilliant strategy achievement. The case of Guy LaFleur has been extensively documented.

Posted at 5:00 PM.

Philip Navarro

Philip Navarro
Former International Relations Consultant

The 1976 trade that yielded the first pick in 1980 was even lower; However, it was Wayne Gretzky who was the target. However, he will never be taken. The Canadian made a deal in 1981 with Hartford for 1984’s first-choice (Mario Lemieux), but the Whales, bad players, would not have the elegance to end the year agreed upon. These Canadian GMs were a mix of wolves of Wall Street, grandmasters and fathers, and the results were identical.

In 2022, the Canadian owes his first choice only to his own misfortune – and a bit of luck. It is encouraging to see that this pioneer is progressing and with it the whole nation.

The Canadian began this regression to the intermediate level precisely in 1980, missing both Gretsky and Denis Savard (he was selected in second place). In 1971 he was not mistaken. One could argue – from a charming historical perspective – whether Marcel Dion, the second choice, would have had Lafleur’s career, had he spent it in Montreal rather than Los Angeles; Would Lafleur have become the national hero that he is, if he had accomplished his feats (or not!) in an expanding club, like Dion (or even Gilbert Perrault)? This is not attributed to anyone: they all became giants. This is the romantic view of the sport. There is one more clinical.

Photo by Jane Goebel, press archives

Repechage session at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel in 1981. In the first round, Canadian Mark Hunter (7And rank), Gilbert Delorme (18And rank) and Jan Engemann (19And Rank).

In it, players are assets, like securities. Arrange the draft like stock options. These assets are acquired, valued, or impaired; They sell themselves, they switch, are exchanged in a timely manner. Snowboard production is cash dividends. When the expected profit from the transaction is greater than the future dividend, it is liquidated most of the time.

However, the paradox inherent in the transactions of sports assets is the same as that observed for securities in the stock market: for each seller there will be a buyer who believes more than he does in the current asset (because he makes a decision contrary to that seller). However, it is actually the same origin. And Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate in economics, sees this contradiction as an imbalance in the rationality of economic actors. He says that buyers have distorted their view by what he calls the indicative effect. Moreover, buyers, who are placed in competition, sensitive to various installation biases and other halo effects, have a tendency to pay too much. In short, they were blinded by emotion.

Managing directors, of their forts overlooking the plain, sometimes fall in love with their horses, as are the investors by their titles. You shouldn’t fall in love with your nicknames or your horses. Not with choices.

You have set the value of the draft choices in the book The disc wasn’t rolling for us. The value of the second choice is 85.3% of the first choice. The value of the third was 78.8%, and the value of the late selection from the first round was 22.2%. Michael E. Shockers, in a similar exercise, had similar results. These numbers do not apply when a player called “Generation” appears. However, this was not the case in 2022. The merits of each of the first three options are discussed.

And we will remain silent about the value of these young people on a human and athletic level. It is the experience of others. However, their value as assets must also be evaluated.

Let’s say player A is the best. In terms of the market, its shares are worth $100; Players B and C value, $85.30 and $78.80. Expected earnings are comparable. Picking a $100 stock on draft day for $14.70 daily gain is daunting. How much would New Jersey (option two) or Arizona (option three) pay for the first? What is the market premium for switch Rows? The gap will be quickly covered: the first option is the original with it Reeds are a decorative material. Suggestions can come from competitors; In this case the price goes up. A first-round prize in 2023, for example, might be worth… $100 on its own.

realizing this switch, the Canadian could easily get more than the value of the first option, and that is by playing on the proven irrationality of buyers in such circumstances. He’ll get one of the top three players available (who knows, the best), as well as assets with a higher value in the gap between them. It would be a gamble worthy of imitation of the great cunning of Canadian general managers. They didn’t win the game Safe.

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