(AOF) – “What would increase the chances of a soft landing for the economy in 2023? asks Joseph V. Amato, President and CIO – Equities of Neuberger Berman. Certainly, a faster and greater decline in inflation than expected. For now, however, the asset manager believes a soft landing is an ever-tightening path.
Economic data may leave enough room to support investor sentiment in the near term, even after last week’s releases. According to Neuberger Berman, however, the stock market faces very difficult growth and inflation dynamics. If that reality doesn’t start to materialize in the first quarter of 2023, he believes it can only be postponed until the end of the year.
Joseph V. Amato underlines the existence of an important “wild card”: China, whose authorities are easing their “zero Covid” policy, reopening the country and focusing on the recovery of growth.
“This could reintroduce significant demand into the global economy. This is probably one of the reasons for the positive sentiment towards European risk assets, which are particularly exposed to this dynamic. Good news for growth, could be bad news for growth. inflation. A strengthening China will probably make the task of central banks even more difficult”, analyzes the asset manager.
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