After ” slow decline » detected, on 15 December, by the notaries, placed at the ” market reversal “, in the words of Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, to report, this Tuesday January 3, 2023, on real estate activity in France in the old during the year 2022.
Two formulas that reflect the same observation: last year the volume of transactions of existing properties saw the red, or, according to data published today by the Century 21 network and its 950 real estate agencies based in Hexagon (for 7,830 employees), a by -4.1% compared to 2021 (the same notaries report a contraction of -5% in the period from September 2021 to September 2022).
It is particularly noteworthy a phenomenonCharles Marinakis said: the market reversal took place from the summerafter a thriving first half of 2022 », in terms of transaction volume.
A real estate market down by -8.2%
After 2021 – which was ” the year of all records “, we remind Century 21 – the last year was mainly weighed down by the decline in home sales, equal to -8.2%, while the sales volumes of apartments remained stable, at -0.2%.
In Ile-de-France the contraction was even stronger with a drop in transactions of -6% during the year, penalized even more by the real estate market, at -10.9%” consequence of a price increase in the region of 5.5% “, noted the president of Century 21 France.
In Paris, on the other hand, the opposite phenomenon occurred: on a market in which prices contracted by -2.4% over the year (with prices per square meter falling below the 10,000 threshold in September and November), the sales increased by 5.9% .
Still on the price side, and this time embracing all of France,” continued their ascent that began in 2015 “, observed the president of Century 21 France: while the average price per square meter of houses increased by 7.1% last year, that of apartments increased by 4% reaching respectively 2,619 euros and 4,288 euros.
What are the factors of decline in real estate dynamics?
To explain this market reversal, nationwide, in favor of the buyer, underlined Charles Marinakis ” four objective factors » :
- the rise in interest rates on loans (according to the CSA Real Estate Credit Observatory, quoted by The worldmore than doubled in one year, going from 1.06% in November 2021 to 2.25% in November 2022);
- telescopic with the wear rate, ” which complied late and automatically made some credit files ineligible “, observes Charles Marinakis (consequence: at Century 21 France, the number of compromises canceled due to loan refusal fell from an average of 3.2% in the first half of 2022 to 6% in the second half);
- the energy crisis and its accompanying anxious communication » ;
- and, finally, the vote on the climate and resilience law followed by energy adaptation constraints for homes which she imposes.
Also, to these four objective factors “, four more” subjective factors can be taken up, according to Charles Marinakis, to explain the pivoting of the real estate market in the summer of 2022: the international climate and the war in Ukraine; deterioration of purchasing power; the new provisions on pension systems; and the Finance Law of 2023.
Prices down from -5% to -7% in 2023
As for the outlook for 2023, Charles Marinakis predicted a market that will not drop significantly, as it is still characterized by housing demand that remains higher than supply.
And announce a decline in transaction volumes which would be between -3% and -5%. As for real estate prices, they are expected to fall again this year, in the order of -5% to -7%. And the Century 21 France network to deliver this prophecy, always on the side of the price: “Paris will undoubtedly regain color at the end of 2023”.