During his interview with France 2 on Wednesday, October 26, Emmanuel Macron said he won’t “never an existential link between immigration and precariousness”, adding this: “When we look at crime in Paris today, we cannot fail to see that at least half of the crime we observe comes from people who are foreigners or in an irregular situation or awaiting title, at least in very fragile situations”. This statement prompted many elected officials to react. The True from False cell tried to find out what was really going on.
>> PLAY. Find Emmanuel Macron’s second interview in the political program “L’Evénement”, on France 2
The proportion proposed by Emmanuel Macron is quite true, if we look at the data from the Paris police headquarters, which ended up sending us the data over the weekend, after several days of waiting.
According to the prefecture, the share of foreigners “in the crime committed in Paris amounts to 48% for the first months of the year 2022, all crimes combined. For some types of crime, the prefecture continues, the percentage of foreign defendants is higher than this average: therefore, 70.4% of violent thefts and 75.6% of simple thefts are committed by foreigners in Paris.
If these figures seem to prove Emmanuel Macron right, they are still to be taken with great caution according to various delinquency specialists that franceinfo has been able to question.
First of all, these are partial data from a few months, the prefecture tells us, without further details on the number of months. A period considered by specialists too short to draw real lessons. Another nuance to bring: the prefecture figures are raw figures of the police services with several possible biases. For example, a foreigner implicated multiple times will be counted multiple times, even if he is the same person.
Clearly, this figure of 48%, alone, without any other indicator, is difficult to put into perspective because it measures part of the crime facts observed, without evaluating the number of offenders.
If we take the judicial convictions in 2021indicator considered more reliable, it should be noted that of the approximately 460,000 people convicted in France, 16% were foreigners. A rate has been stable for several years.
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