What will the weather be like in Calais in 2050?

FM TV. com gathered data from Météo-France’s Climadiag platform, which details the climate changes projected by mid-century.

What climate should Calais residents expect? in 2050? If 2022 is already warmest year ever measured in the history of meteorological records, notable changes are expected in the coming decades. Météo France has made its forecasts for each municipality available to the French, via a new platform.

Average temperatures, heat wave intensity, drought risk… BFMTV.com has compiled some of these indicators to give you an idea of ​​what awaits you by 2050. All projections established here are based on a middle scenario where our greenhouse gas emissions will stabilize at a low level before the end of the century.

For each indicator, Météo France provides the “range of possibilities”, with the expected median value, but also a low and a high value. These data are compared with a current reference period, which corresponds to the years 1976 to 2005.

“This is a standard 30-year period from the recent past that matches the most recent period in historical simulations,” he explains France weather.

Almost 2.5°C more in summer in 2050

In Calais, Météo-France forecasts an increase in average temperatures in 2050, whatever the season.

Therefore, winter temperatures will increase by 2°C in the highest hypothesis of the Météo-France scenario, thus rising from 4.9°C in the period 1976-2005, to 5.9°C in winter 2050.

Météo-France also predicts an increase in summer temperatures of almost 2.5°C according to the highest hypothesis. Temperatures will therefore reach an average of 19°C in the summer, compared to 16.6°C in the baseline period. The lowest scenario predicted by Météo-France still includes an increase in temperatures regardless of the season.

More frequent heatwaves in 2050

The scenario envisaged by Météo-France also foresees an evolution in the number of cold waves that occur each year in Calais.

Between 1976 and 2005, Calais experienced an average of three days of cold spells per year. A figure that could remain the same in 2050, according to the Météo-France scenario. The median scenario, however, projects a decline in the average annual number of cold snap days, which would then be limited to one day per year.

On the contrary, the heatwaves will multiply in the years to come, even if the Hauts-de-France was hit by successive heatwaves this summer.

In the reporting period, Calais experienced no heat wave on average during the year. But Météo-France’s median scenario predicts at least two days of heatwaves per year, or even up to five days in the highest hypothesis.

Increased rainfall in winter

Like much of the country, Pas-de-Calais experienced a severe drought in 2022 and a rainfall deficit. The restrictive measures regarding the use of water did not end until the beginning of December.

According to projections by Météo France for the year 2050, rainfall in Calais will increase in winter, with in the highest scenario, up to 233 mm of rainfall in 2050, where the city recorded only 186 mm in the reference period.

Conversely, rainfall may be lower in summer. The lowest hypothesis of Météo France foresees 129 mm of precipitation in the summer by 2050, against the average 165 mm between 1976 and 2005 in the summer period. However, the scenario with the highest value projects up to 202 mm of rain in the summer within thirty years.

It is therefore difficult to predict exactly the evolution of rainfall in 2050. The values ​​are subject to “great uncertainty depending on the models”, warns Drias, the climate service responsible for forecasting. An uncertainty linked “to the particular position of our country in a climatic transition zone on a continental scale, between an increase in rainfall in the North and a decrease in the South”.

Vegetation fires in Calais in 2050?

Rising temperatures and episodes of drought tend to favor vegetation fires, numerous this summer in the south of France, especially in the Gironde or in the south-east.

For the time being, Calais is spared this fire risk. In the reporting period, Météo France indicates that the city on average was not affected by any significant risk of vegetation fires. A scenario that could change in the coming years.

The highest value of the Météo France scenario estimates that the fire risk in Calais could be significant for three days during the year by 2050. The median scenario, however, predicts that Calais will remain free from this risk, even in thirty years .

Note that a dozen other indicators showing the climate in 2050 are available on the site, such as the number of freezing days or the number of warm nights. Common Clidiag from Meteo France.