BFMTV.com has compiled data from Météo France’s Clidiag platform, which details the climate changes projected by mid-century.
What climate should Parisians expect in 2050? While 2022 is already the hottest year ever measured in the history of weather records, dramatic changes are expected in the coming decades. Météo-France has made its forecasts for each municipality available to the French public a new platform.
Average temperatures, heat wave intensity, drought risk… BFMTV.com has compiled some of these indicators to give you an idea of what awaits you by 2050. All projections established here are based on a middle scenario where our greenhouse gas emissions will stabilize at a low level before the end of the century.
For each indicator, Météo-France provides the “range of possibilities”, with the expected median value, but also a low and a high value. This data is compared to a current baseline period, which corresponds to the years 1976 to 2005. “This is a standard 30-year period from the recent past which corresponds to the most recent period in historical simulations,” he explains France weather.
2°C more on average in 2050 in summer
First observation in the capital, the average temperature by 2050 should increase in all cases and in all seasons.
In the period 1976-2005, the average winter temperature was 5.2°C. In 2050, in the scenario predicted by Météo-France, the mercury could rise by two degrees during this season, according to the highest scenario. Even in the low hypothesis, the thermometer would rise, with an average of 6°C.
This increase is even more marked during the summer season. While the average reference temperature is 19.9°C, it could rise by almost 2°C. In the most pessimistic hypothesis it could even reach 22.9°C, three degrees higher.
Increase in heat waves
Another development anticipated by Météo France, the number of cold waves that occur every year in Paris.
From 1976 to 2005, the capital experienced three cold snap days a year. This figure should decrease slightly, to just two days, under the medium assumption. Taking into account the lower value of the scenario, Paris may not even experience more cold spells within 30 years.
On the other hand, heat waves will multiply, while the summer of 2022 in Paris has already been characterized by particularly high temperatures with several periods of heat waves.
On average, there have been only three heatwave days a year in the recent period. This figure is expected to more than double in 2050 with eight days of heatwaves expected. In the most pessimistic scenario, Paris could be hit as many as 16 days a year.
A variable level of rainfall according to the seasons
As in most of the country, the last few months in Paris have also been characterized by drought and low rainfall. The capital had even been placed on drought alert at the beginning of August. This scenario tends to repeat itself by 2050.
According to projections by Météo-France, rainfall is expected to decrease slightly in summer. Conversely, precipitation in winter, spring and autumn may increase. The result is essentially identical nationwide with a slight increase in average rainfall in 2050.
“However, this slight increase is accompanied by great uncertainty according to the models, since the sign of the trend could be reversed whatever the scenario,” warns Drias, climate service responsible for these predictions.
Vegetation fires in Paris in 2050?
Furthermore, in France, high temperatures and low rainfall sometimes give rise to significant forest or vegetation fires. This was the case this summer in the south of France with violent fires especially occurring in the Gironde.
For the moment, Paris is spared from this type of event due to its high urban density and scarce surrounding vegetation. The capital has only two extensive woodlands as well as a few parks and other green spaces but no forests.
Currently, Paris does not have a significant fire risk. However, this situation is set to change by 2050. According to the median scenario proposed by Météo-France, the capital could have a significant fire risk day every year. In the case of an even more degraded climate scenario, a total of 10 days could be reached.
Note that a dozen other indicators showing the climate in 2050 are available on the site, such as the number of freezing days or the number of warm nights. Municipalities Climadiag of Meteo France.
How is Clidiag Commune data collected?
The indicators established by the Météo France platform are based on data from Drias, a climate service launched in France in 2012. Clidiag Commune aims to simplify this vast collection of data by proposing a single horizon (2050) and a single scenario, including three different values.
“It is a way to clear the ground and get a first idea of the main issues and developments affecting the commune,” explains Patrick Josse, head of the climatology and climate services department of Météo-France.